You can’t say that the Mariners didn’t have their chances Sunday night to clinch a World Series berth. Down 2-0 in the top of the third inning, they had the bases loaded with one out and Cal Raleigh up to bat; he grounded into a double play. Down 4-0 in the top of the fourth inning, they once again loaded the bases with one out, this time with J.P. Crawford up to bat; he, too, grounded into a double play. They had their chances, and they missed them, and it was around the fourth inning that everyone started to think about punting the game: It was time to gird oneself for a Game 7.
If you are a glutton for punishment and/or trying to cope in a roundabout way (e.g., me), you can look at the expected batting averages of both balls hit in play. This is what sabermetrics are really for: generous interpretive application to make yourself feel better or worse, accordingly. On average, teams score 1.61 runs after loading the bases with one out. Cal Raleigh’s grounder to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was hit hard, over 100 mph—it had an xBA of .350, or a 35 percent chance of becoming a hit. J.P. Crawford’s double-play ball could’ve been a bloop single in another world—it had an xBA of .540.
