BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) — In general, 2025 has trended above average for temperatures and below average for precipitation. The warmer weather lasted well into the beginning of fall, and it seemed like winter was still far away.
Now that we are over a month into fall and a few days into November, the days are getting shorter and the nights are getting chillier. With these changing conditions, this raises the question: when will we finally start to see snow flurries flying through the air?
If the first snowfall wasn’t already in the 7-day forecast, we could use previous years of data to get a good idea of when we’d see the first snowflakes as well as the first measurable snow that sticks.
The first flakes that are seen in Buffalo usually come, on average, around Oct. 24, based on data collected between 1943 and 2024.
Since 2023, we have seen later-than-normal first snows. Oct. 31 was the first snow of 2023 while Nov. 28 was the first of 2024 —the latest first snow on record. This year, it is forecast that we’ll see flakes late Nov. 9 into Nov. 10, just a little later than usual.
Historically, the majority of first snows are usually determined to be a trace, but in some years, it was also the first measurable snow.
On Nov. 5, 1982, 12.3 inches of snow accumulated on the day that Buffalo saw its first snowflakes of the season. Another good example of this occurrence was back in 2006 on Oct. 12, when 8.6 inches of snow fell.
On average, the first measurable snow usually falls around Nov. 8, with the first total over 1 inch falling on Nov. 18.
When does the snowpack usually start to stick? The first snow usually melts on contact or within the next couple of days.
This factor is basically unpredictable due to a variety of reasons. The ground needs several days and nights in a row of near or below freezing temperatures to be able to keep the snow in a solid form. A trace of snow usually wouldn’t stick or be noticeable on the ground.
In late October to early November, we usually see a pattern where we get a cold snap for a couple of days, then it’s right back to average, around the lower 50s, after that period of cooler weather ends. That also causes the snow not to stick.
The later we get into November, the more frequent pattern of snowfall we’ll see, which will lead to an increased likelihood for snow to start lasting longer on the ground.
Sara Stierly is a meteorologist who has been a part of the 4Warn Weather team since 2025. She is a graduate of Penn State University. See more of her work here.
